"It Takes A Network To Defeat A Network"

[UPDATE: Craptastically, I forgot to include General Abizaid's take on the Iraqi military mission. Because it just may be relevant to the rest of the post, it's this: The US military presence in Iraq is buying the country time to progress in governmental development and to buy time to build its army. Buying time.

Why is it that I have yet to hear Bush, Cheney, Gates, Rice or any member of Congress utter that phrase when referring to the express use of US military combat operations in Iraq?

Care for a little air sickness bag to go with that cognitive dissonance and spin?]

Northeastern University hosted retired Central Command General John Abizaid to speak to its Middle East Center for Peace, Culture, and Development students about the U.S. and the Middle East this morning.

General Abizaid, a Colorado Rockies fan, apologized for competing with the Red Sox homecoming parade.

However, the NU Middle East Center host, Professor Denis Sullivan, let him know that his presentation would end in plenty of time to take in the festivities.

Northeastern's President Joseph Aoun, a professor of linguistics, introduced General Abizaid with this intriguing proposition: America is unique in being "hyphenated". People can be Arab-Americans, Latino-Americans, African-Americans, etc., and in America, this enrichment thrives and cultural and ethnic heritage is celebrated and valued, instead of the enforced assimilation that occurs in other countries policies toward their immigrants.

Were that it was so. President Ayoub has not perhaps lived in homogeneous communities in the South or Midwest, for example, where immigrants are not only not rewarded for cultural pride and immersion, but are discriminated for it. However, I digress, and this optimism is not a bad thing.

General Abizaid used a few maps of the Middle East to highlight the major points of his presentation.  The first was a plain geographical map of the countries and nation/states of the broader Middle East and adjoining regions.

He gave himself away when he produced this anecdote:

"A few years ago The Secretary of Defense called me to ask a question.  You can't say that he didn't consult the military.  At that time I had 25 areas under my command in the Middle East.  I didn't have Lebanon and Syria.  The Secretary asked me if I would take them on.  I replied that I would rather not.  After a period of reflection and consideration - about 5 or 6 seconds - he replied, 'you've got them.'" (The audience dutifully laughed.)  "I replied, 'why don't you give me North Korea, too?'"

Har.  Har.

But in that little funny is contained Rumsfeld's contempt, hubris and stupidity, and Abizaid's acknowledgment of it.

Back to the presentation.  Gen. Abizaid proposed that the current conflicts are representative of what he views as the first battle of globalization, where there are elements of the population that are trying to remain local and separate from the world, while other elements are trying to engage in world trade, politics and the economy.

With that as his meta view of extant Middle East conflicts, he repeatedly asserted, "You can criticize how we got where we are, but we are where we are, and now we have to move forward."

He then produced the map but with US military perceived conflicts superimposed on the region.

The four major meta problems he perceives include:

• A rise in extremist organizations which include religious indoctrinated extremist views
• Al Qaida - stateless and centerless, a complex and dynamic network including infrastructure, economies and cyberstructure relationships - difficult to infiltrate, understand and contain/minimize
• A rise in Shi'a extremism - nationstates - Iran
• seeks to dominate the region/Persian Gulf
• Arab/Israeli conflict where he perceives a "sense of hopelessness in the region"
• Oil - the Middle East fuels the global economy

Next up is the map with US military goals and objectives superimposed:

• Containment of Iranian aggression
• Control of the Afhan/Pakistani border with an emphasis on the Pakistani side with the aim of reducing the strategic leadership presence of Al Qaida
  
  
• Notably, the Taliban was not mentioned throughout this presentation, and no questioner mentioned it, either
• Stabilize Afghanistan
• Work to stabilize Arab/Palestinian/Israeli relationships
• Monitor extremist groups flowing into North Africa to ungoverned areas
• Monitor Darfur

Interestingly, there are three operations locations generally superimposed in Iran, but Abizaid didn't refer to them specifically.  Does that mean that military operations are officially underway there?  Or does it refer to covert intelligence operations? (Hello, Valerie Plame) Or does it refer to special ops units?  Something else?  Again, no questioner asked about it.

Then Abizaid, who answered one question with the preface, "I may be a retired general, but I still uphold my oath.  I won't criticize this president, the vice president or the secretary of defense," flashed his model of Al Qaida which portrayed a complex network of relationships, information and material and human resources. This was titled simply, "The Network of Al Qaeda."  And after this was Abizaid's policy recommendations and philosophy hidden in plain sight with the US response to that titled, "It Takes A Network To Defeat A Network."

In this representation was diplomatic efforts, international aid, regional policy development and participation (sort of a neighborhood watch model), economic aid, nation building, global relationship building and the engagement of Iraq's government in driving its national security and thus providing the means of egress for US military presence and involvement.

Abizaid repeated this nugget:  "The Iraqis don't want us there, and the military doesn't want to be there." Ahem, Washington.

He also referenced every single remark about the presidential role relative to the Middle East as "what the next president will have to do...." Digby has so presciently remarked that the Repubs are disappearing George W. Bush, and this is evident as well with retired military who would like to criticize by speaking to everything which should be done (and should be happening now) by fast forwarding to January of 09. Essentially, if you want to know what Abizaid thinks about Rumsfeld, Cheney and Bush, just pay attention to what he recommends for the "Next" administration, and fill in the gap between that and what this administration is doing.  The criticisms will reveal themselves quite clearly.

Abizaid also spoke to concerns about Bush's remark about WW III.  His take?

"I don't think we're heading for war in Iran.  It would be terrible for Iran.  I don't think we're headed for WW III."

He emphasized the need to actively discourage Iran from becoming a nuclear state. But he also stated that the US could live with Iran as a nuclear state, saying, "We lived with Russia and Korea having nuclear states, didn't we?  Don't underestimate out power.  We tend to forget how powerful the US is."

The Northeastern students, many of whom are from areas in or near the Middle East, asked intelligent, thoughtful and informed questions which were answered, for the most part, in optimistic tones.

One NU professor of comparative religion asked about the US role and responsibility for creating the extant problems.  Abizaid skirted the issue and emphasized the need to understand that Iraqis are for the most part, not extremists, are trying to get along with the same concerns that citizens have around the world: work, live, and support their families in their communities.

Overall, there was a lack of depth of substantive specific information in the General's presentation, which was remarked upon after the presentation by a faculty member to the university president.

However, I think that if one understands that the message delivered was in the model of the "network to defeat a network" as Abizaid's policy stance toward containing and addressing terrorism, then the lack of the US diplomatic, economic and infrastructure/humanitarian aid and development efforts and policies to do just that are ample criticism of Bush/Cheney  and the Departments of State and Defense.

Abizaid also spoke to the need to draw down the Army presence in Iraq.  He used a five year time table, and he didn't address the 20% broken soldier rate, the 10% exodus of junior and mid-level officers, nor the 18% recruitment waiver rate as parts of the Army sustainability picture, but he did in passing, reference the Army's overstretched situation. He also expressed his opinion that presidential candidates should be asked about this.

Except for his overly optimistic stance about POTUS/Cheney and Iran, his presentation was helpful to understand the complexity of the situation, its timeframe, and the meta-military role of the US - extant and optimal.

With regard to Iran, all I will say is consider the Balad CSH which has been made enormous and permanent and which is fully staffed jointly by the USAF and the Army.  It's ideally situated to receive Iran airstrike and ground forces casualties and to fly them out of theatre.  Where air evac, triage, and treatment facilities are robust and ready, the action isn't too likely to be too far behind or too far away.

General Abizaid engaged with students immediately after the Q and A portion of his presentation. He became very animated when one student identified himself as a sergeant in the Army Reserve who had served a tour in Najaf. Abizid immediately thank him for his service to his country (he had previously exhorted all of us to do the same when we encountered military personnel regardless of personal feelings about military action). Then he encouraged this student to speak to his fellow students about what he experienced there.

Communicate, communicate, communicate.

Abizaid gets the message across. Clearly. Effectively.

Criticize Washington?

Just fill in the blanks.

Where The Surge Is Working

There is a real effective surge in Iraq. It just isn't with the combat forces.

Cholera is surging through the country.

A cholera epidemic in northern Iraq has infected approximately 7,000 people and could reach Baghdad within weeks as the disease spreads through the country’s decrepit and unsanitary water system, Iraqi health officials said Tuesday.

The World Health Organization reported that the epidemic is concentrated in the northern regions of Kirkuk and Sulaimaniya and that 10 people are known to have died. But Dr. Said Hakki, president of the Iraqi Red Crescent Society, a relief organization that has responded to the epidemic, said that new cases had turned up in the neighboring provinces, Erbil and Nineveh, indicating that the disease had spread.

What is cholera?

Cholera is an acute diarrhoeal infection caused by ingestion of the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. Transmission occurs through direct faecal-oral contamination or through ingestion of contaminated water and food. The disease is characterized in its most severe form by a sudden onset of acute watery diarrhoea that can lead to death by severe dehydration and kidney failure. The extremely short incubation period - two hours to five days - enhances the potentially explosive pattern of outbreaks, as the number of cases can rise very quickly. About 75% of people infected with cholera do not develop any symptoms. However, the pathogens stay in their faeces for 7 to 14 days and are shed back into the environment, potentially infecting other individuals. Cholera is an extremely virulent disease that affects both children and adults. Unlike other diarrhoeal diseases, it can kill healthy adults within hours. Individuals with lower immunity, such as malnourished children or people living with HIV, are at greater risk of death if infected by cholera.

Isn't that a disease from the Middle Ages?

During the 19th century, cholera spread repeatedly from its original reservoir or source in the Ganges delta in India to the rest of the world, before receding to South Asia. Six pandemics were recorded that killed millions of people across Europe, Africa and the Americas. The seventh pandemic, which is still ongoing, started in 1961 in South Asia, reached Africa in 1971 and the Americas in 1991. The disease is now considered to be endemic in many countries and the pathogen causing cholera cannot currently be eliminated from the environment.

Two serogroups of V. cholerae - O1 and O139 - can cause outbreaks. The main reservoirs are human beings and aquatic sources such as brackish water and estuaries, often associated with algal blooms (plankton). Recent studies indicate that global warming might create a favourable environment for V. cholerae and increase the incidence of the disease in vulnerable areas.

Who is at risk? How do they get it? Global warming - is Al Gore behind this?

Cholera is mainly transmitted through contaminated water and food and is closely linked to inadequate environmental management. The absence or shortage of safe water and sufficient sanitation combined with a generally poor environmental status are the main causes of spread of the disease. Typical at-risk areas include peri-urban slums, where basic infrastructure is not available, as well as camps for internally displaced people or refugees, where minimum requirements of clean water and sanitation are not met. However, it is important to stress that the belief that cholera epidemics are caused by dead bodies after disasters, whether natural or man-made, is false. Nonetheless, rumours and panic are often rife in the aftermath of a disaster. On the other hand, the consequences of a disaster -- such as disruption of water and sanitation systems or massive displacement of population to inadequate and overcrowded camps -- can increase the risk of transmission, should the pathogen be present or introduced.

Since 2005, the re-emergence of cholera has been noted in parallel with the ever-increasing size of vulnerable populations living in unsanitary conditions. Cholera remains a global threat to public health and one of the key indicators of social development. While the disease is no longer an issue in countries where minimum hygiene standards are met, it remains a threat in almost every developing country. The number of cholera cases reported to WHO during 2006 rose dramatically, reaching the level of the late 1990s. A total of 236 896 cases were notified from 52 countries, including 6311 deaths, an overall increase of 79% compared with the number of cases reported in 2005.

Was it a surprise? Um - NO!

AMMAN, March 22 (Reuters) - United Nations agencies working in Iraq warned on Thursday a chronic shortage of safe drinking water risks causing more child deaths and an outbreak of waterborne disease such as cholera during the summer.

Four years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, millions of Iraqi children still find that safe water is no easier to access, said a statement issued by leading U.N. aid agencies operating in Iraq.

Does General Petraeus have a slide for this?

The major human displacement caused by the Iraq conflict — people being driven from their homes or simply choosing to leave — is likely to be driving the epidemic, officials say.

Who is helping?

Between 23 August and 6 September 2007, the cumulative number of cases of acute watery diarrhoea reported from five out of eleven districts of Sulaymaniyah Governate stands at 3,182 including 9 deaths (case fatality rate, CFR: 0.3%). Of these reported cases, Vibrio cholerae has been laboratory confirmed in 283 stool specimens.

During the period from 29 July to 2 September 2007, the health authority of Kirkuk Governate reported a total of 3,728 cases of acute diarrhoeal disease including 1 death (CFR: 0.03%). The first index case of cholera, confirmed by laboratory test, was reported from Kirkuk Governate on 14 August 2007. Most recently, six laboratory-confirmed cases of cholera were reported from Erbil Governate.

The Government of Iraq has mobilised a multi-sectoral response to the outbreak. A high-level National Committee on Cholera Preparedness and Outbreak Response has been established. The provincial health authorities of Sulaymaniyah, Kirkuk and Erbil Governates have initiated a number of public health control measures to contain the outbreak, including risk assessment, improving water safety and sanitation, strengthening the surveillance system for diarrhoeal disease, improving coordination and information flow, standardising clinical case management, mobilising medical and other essential supplies, and implementing social mobilisation and health education campaigns. All public water supply systems in the affected districts have been chlorinated by the provincial authorities. In addition, water samples from the public water supply sources are being collected and tested routinely to ensure they meet potable water safety standards.

WHO, UNICEF, UNDP, International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), a number of non-governmental organisations including the International Medical Corps (IMC), and Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF - France) are supporting the Ministry of Health and local health authorities in ongoing response operations.

The Numbers

Up until the Iraq epidemic, in 2005 WORLDWIDE, there were 236,896 total number of cases with 6311 deaths.
In Iraq alone now, there are 3182 cases with 9 deaths, and the number is exploding. For comparison, in 2004, the WHO reported 35 cases of cholera in Iraq with zero deaths.

Imagine for just a moment. You have explosive, debilitating diarrhea. It's over 100 degrees. You have no refrigeration, no bottled water, no cans of broth, soup and jello, no rehydration fluids, no toilet paper, no air conditioner or fans, no ice, no flushing toilets, no clean potable water of any kind, no medication, no clinic or hospital. How do you feel now?

Not a single US agency in the mix of health and relief agencies tackling this national nightmare. The US breaks a country, causes a 100% preventable epidemic, causes untold suffering, and leaves the mess for the international relief community to address.

And Americans have already learned that every single governmental agency is headed up with partisan political appointees who will report distorted and false information at the mandate of the Bush White House. So there is no trust in anything that the CDC or the HHS has to say about a cholera epidemic.

In Iraq with military supply lines becoming increasingly imperiled, it's only a matter of time before the beleaguered and exhausted troops also succumb to cholera. They are tired, they may not have timely and adequate deliveries of bottle or treated water, and just as they had to host bake sales to raise funds to purchase their own body armor, they have no guarantee that the White House won't fail them again, since the budget always funds political donors, regardless of what the troops need.

Love in the time of cholera. Not just a book title anymore.

Hearts and minds, baby.

Final Exam

What should the U.S. do vis-a-vis Iraq?

Well, let's start at the beginning:

What is the mandate via the Constitution for use of the military in foreign lands?

Under what stated mission is the military acting in Iraq? Afghanistan? (Really - provide the mission statement or the link to the same.)

What criteria are stated by which to measure the progress and/or completion of the stated mission(s). Again - provide the written criteria, the author(s) and the links or citations.

Provide the reports by independent and neutral third parties which states the methods used to identify how closely the military has met the mission.

WHAT? You can't answer any items past the Constitutional parameters for the use of the military in foreign lands?????

Now you get it!

Out. Of. Iraq. Now.